Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Prediction Markets

Economic impact of an Obama victory: too early to tell.

But pragmatism and expertise will be the principal ingredients of the government's policies, flavored with egalitarian anger and populist desire for revenge. On the whole, better than the stew of ideology and grandstanding, similarly flavored (perhaps substituting xenophobic paranoia for egalitarian anger), that would have come from McCain and his crowd. On the whole, I'd rather have Volker, Geithner, Summers and Krugman taking the hand off from Paulson et al. than Phil Gramm, Carly Fiorina and the B list academics in the McCain Palin camp.

Since the entire blogosphere is obsessing on the election, I get to comment, too, off the economic topic. Here you are:

A. Prediction Markets: 1; Bradley Effect: 0.

B. A couple of years ago U.S. military recruiters were given a hypothetical choice between doubling of their recruiting budgets and having the example of the Bush twins enlist in the military. Overwhelmingly, they responded that the example of the Bush daughters in the service would be more help to them in their recruiting efforts than doubling their budgets. Of course, those children of privilege were never at risk of facing the rigors of basic training, much less harm's way.

In terms of its effect on the Arab street, a President Obama is tantamount to the nuclear option.

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