Saturday, October 25, 2008

Chinese Gambit

The Chinese are making a move. No doubt about it. It's more a gambit than a committed offensive. Think of it as a test for weakness, easily abandoned if it fails in the first couple of steps, or reinforced with additional commitment and resources if it's initially successful.

I don't think they have a strategy. It more opportunistic.

Many, many words are being devoted to analyzing it. But the conceptual framework for that discussion is unfortunately economic, rather than drawn from game theory.

Hate to say it, guys, but this is more about game theory than anything else. Temporary positional advantage than can be permanently solidified given a favorable correlation of forces (that's a midtwentieth century Soviet construct). If things turn against them, abandon the gambit, publicly disgrace its advocates, and resume play, next inning.

Ah, the new entrant's freedom to manoever . . .

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