Minsky, Path Dependency and the Hegelian Dialectic

It's been all downhill since the Hegelian dialectic was hijacked by the Marxists and became dialetical materialism. Start with a mode of argument--thesis, anthesis and synthesis-and deploy it to analyze problems in 19th century political economics. And you have a concept that takes into consideration the prosaic and indisputable observation that the seeds of the next problem are generally found in the solutions to the current problem. An economic and political context in crisis yields an outcome, dependent on the prevailing correlation of forces, and, lo and behold, the new stasis has in it an internal tension that results in eventual crisis, which in turn yields a resolution that creates yet another new set of circumstances, that in turn . . .



And so you have dialectical materialism for idiots. I mean, there is a great deal more to it than that, if you are interested.



In its most recent iteration there is the lovely thought that future outcomes are path dependent, which is even easier. I believe path dependency can be summed up in the observation that what happens eventually depends on what happens between now and then. And that differing intermediate outcomes either foreclose or increase the probability of different ultimate outcomes.



Path dependency is a useful corrective to what Hyman Minsky referred to as the Olympian fallacy. The Olympian fallacy, which also has theological overtones and resonate with chaos theory, holds that a prime mover can set a process or policy or strategy in motion and it will inevitably lead to the desired outcome. Nice as it is to think that the butterflies wings half a world away cause the typhoon, the thought has little practical application in human affairs. Rather, in application, the ideal is transformed into the real, or becomes something alien to those who originally imagined it.



So, it's not entirely clear how all this will come out. But it's pretty clear that future choices and options will be determined by choices made today and the outcomes of those choices. And perhaps by choices made in the past, which are only working out as real world outcomes today.

Death of the Sinecures?

Our economy is littered with sinecures.

Technically, I suppose a sinecure in a position, generally a government or academic appointment, in which very little in the way of work, effort or responsibility in required of the incumbent, who nonetheless enjoys a handsome income from the position. In 18th century England, the politics of the day depended heavily on a patronage system involving sinecures, livings and rotten boroughs, which in turn were political appoints, clerical positions and parliament seats filled through appointment by a senior member of the local nobility. In 19th century America, political patronage filled precisely the same role--I had a great grandfather who was the Republican postmaster of Omaha, Nebraska for decades, as a party stalwart and veteran of the Grand Army of the Republic (not something my Georgia kin deemed appropriate to notice officially).

So much for the history lesson. The modern American economy is littered with positions that amount to sinecures. Today's Republicans love to take pot shots at public sector sinecures--as though a horse breeder named Michael Brown had been appointed head of FEMA at the time of Katrina through some merit driven process. And the academic bureaucracy that has developed over the last century probably has more than its fair share of positions in which time serving well positioned bureaucrats have found themselves a safe haven, pending retirement in a decade or perhaps a generation.

But we have private sector sinecures, as well, if you take a somewhat expansive definition of sinecure, and consider any job offering a heavy paycheck for light lifting a form of sinecure. Consider all those divorcees peddling real estate to their still married sororiety sisters. That gig rolled to a close about a year ago. Consider all those credit managers and service managers at sleepy auto dealerships where business has been slow for years, but where the axe finally fell last week. The pay was good, the work was easy, you just had to be a good fit with the family that owned the place. Now, gone. Poof.

On another level, think about all the businesses that serviced the needs of booming sectors of the recent credit-bubble inflated economy. A read an internal memo circulated at J.P. Morgan trying to control car hire, tipping and deal toy expenses. These are probably not good times to be an event planner on Manhattan or in Southern California. Not too sure how the personal trainers and life coaches are doing, either.

Finally, how about good old print journalism? Every decent sized community in the country has a daily newspaper that fewer and fewer people read. Every daily newspaper has local news coverage--business, sports, community affairs. All that requires staffing. To hear the publishers lament, their communities will be culturally impoverished with the loss of that coverage. Perhaps, but if readership is collapsing, and craigslist has ended the want ad gravy train, something is going to give. I don't think the replacement of want ads by craigslist will diminish the vitality of community culture, any more than a shrinking real estate section or using the email instead of the Sunday supplements to flog department store sales will.

But what will change are the job prospects of those reporters. Journalism is apparently one of the favorite majors at the University of Oregon. Mock if you will, call it an English major without the rigor of taking a course in Shakespeare, but it was a major of choice for kids looking for sinecures.

And it appears that the sinecures are being squeezed out of the economy. Oh well, back to work.

A Better Class of Victim

For the last half century in the United States the victims of any economic downturn were invariably the same, at least in the sense that they generally came from the bottom half of the income distribution. Oh, occasionally there'd be some regional variety--petroleum geologists in the Oil Patch back in the 80s, a bunch of white shoe paperhangers in the 60s (i.e., go-go year stock brokers), the occasional wave of aeronautical engineer layoffs in Southern California as the defense cycle turned, the almost comical dot.com geek zillionaires turned burger flippers. But, on the whole, the burden generally and relentlessly fell on the unionized worker, the craftsman, Joe Sixpack, AS the people for whom he voted dismissively labelled him.



Now, the for the first time, we may actually be in a situation where the pain and the burden falls disporportionately on the well employed, well-educated and well off. The 32% of the population that doesn't own a home are spectators to the popping of the housing bubble. The majority of Americans will less than $50,000 in financial assets (or is it $15,000) are not taking the paper losses on their 401ks that their supervisors, and their supervisors' managers, are letting pile up unopened. You've got to have some wealth to feel its destruction. And the elements in the service sector which are for the first time bearing the brunt of the downturn include lawyers and architects as well as retail clerks and minimum wage waitstaff. When an auto dealership closes, the credit manager, sales manager and service manager are all out of a job, not just the floor sales reps and the cleaning staff.



I don't want to overstate this. But the political implications of economic distress that really touches the midle class and the upper middle class in this country is unexplored territory. Conventional wisdom is that the reaction will be conservative--politically and socially. I don't doubt for a minute that in this instance there will be a conservative social reaction. But the political one is harder to call. The political right is so thoroughly tainted with responsibility that it is difficult, for a couple of election cycles, at least, to see it benefiting, even if Team Obama flubs completely. If Team Obama muddles through, I could see a shift to the right as the slog gets longer and longer and memories fade about how the mess came about in the first place. But, in the short term, it's hard to see it.



In terms of historical precedent, I'd offer two conflicting possibilities. One is the rise of fascist tendencies in '30s Europe. The other is the Populist/Progressive movements in the United States of a century ago. I'd guess we're more likely to see a reprise of the latter than the former (in the United States, at least), but I'm far from certain.

Criminalizing Financial Mismanagement

A nuance that has generally been missed about the recent episode allowing the banks to negotiate the outcome of the stress tests is the practical consequence to those responsible for running those institutions. In their discussions with their regulators, they cannot possibly have appropriately qualified their representations and negotiating positions to take into consideration all of the internally available information tending to question or undermine the assertions confidently made to, and taken at face value by, the federal civil servants who, if events do not play out as projected, will ultimately testify in criminal proceedings that they were not apprised on the information available to the defendants that contradicted or undermined their criminal misrepresentations. Let a lay jury determine, in light of subsequent events, whether criminal liability should attach to those conscious decisions to present without qualification unfounded hopes as though they were grounded in fact, rather than result-oriented self delusion.

Give the dialectic time to work out. The stakes are getting higher, and, like gamblers three sheets to the wind, the players aren't cognizant of it.

Weapons of Class Destruction

As we lurch towards a new global financial architecture, each country has something to learn from the other, and each has something to offer. In the spirit of international brotherhood, I'd like to offer some suggestions--about what the United States has to offer China, what China has to offer Russia, and what Russia has to offer the United States.

From the United States, the Chinese can draw valuable and specific lessons as to how various technocratic policies and initiatives can effectively work to refine and fine tune a powerful, globally competitive economy. While the example of the last 24 months isn't particularly edifying, U.S. policies drawn from the second half of the last century can be mined for extremely valuable precedent.

From China, the Russians need to take away a more impressionist sense of how better to accomplish the transition from a command and control economy to one that unleashes the productive potential of a large population occupying a continental space. Over reliance on natural resources and preferential dismantling of state enterprises transforming former managers into oligarchs did not work so well as continuous agnostic meddling. The first step is for the apparachiks to acknowledge they have something to learn from the Mandarins.

From the Russians, the Americans need to learn how to deal with their oligarchs. The first step, of course, is to stop thinking of the financial oligarchy as a meritorious elite in any sense, and admit the cognitive capture of the regulators by Wall Street. Then, redefine the Masters of the Universe as Enemies of the People. The Masters of the Universe were, after all, the ones who orchestrated the evisceration of the American economy and the conversion of a productive citizenry with savings into a mewling horde of consumers indebted up to their eyeballs. While showtrials and bullets in the stairwell aren't in the American tradition, tarring and feathering certainly is.

What we need are weapons of class destruction that maximize wealth impairment while minimizing the loss of human life.

Happy Mo-Fo Day!

On behalf of hedge fund managers, financial services CEOs and other Masters of the Universe, I wish to publicly protest the injustice of this Hallmark Greeting card holiday called 'mother's day'.

Why doesn't the public celebrate Mother Fucker's Day?

Yes, the financial elite has captured the commanding heights inside the Beltway. Yes, we have secured the better part of a trillion dollars to support our equity, and God knows how much more for the preferred, the debtholders, the counter-parties, and the control group. But how much respect, how much affection, has accompanied that niggardly acknowledgement of just how necessary financial oxygen is for the morons to keep on breathing.

We want the morons to worship us as infants worship their mothers. Suck on this!

A Mexican Standoff

Or, more appropriately, a Chinese American standoff. Here, in a nutshell is the situation:

1. The Chinese are nervous about holding large dollar denominated foreign reserves, but are also nervous about allowing their currency to appreciate. The only way to keep the currency to appreciate is to buy dollar denominated assets in sufficient amounts to keep that from happening.

2. The Americans want the Chinese to allow the Chinese currency to appreciate, but need the Chinese to continue buying U.S. government securities to finance the American deficits (fiscal and trade). If the Chinese were to stop increasing, much less begin liquidating, their dollar holdings there would be a serious problem.

So, the Chinese cannot achieve their currency objective without continuing to finance the American deficit. The Americans may lecture on currency manipulation (lecturers fallen silent recently) but urgently need the Chinese purchasing presence.

What makes this situation unusual, from an American perspective, is that the outcome is dependent more on how the Chinese assess the situation than on any American initiative.

The United States is in the unfamiliar position of responding to the policies of others, rather than framing an initiating its own. This is Un-American, and a situation ripe for miscalculation.